In the CNN article,
"Arrests of illegal immigrants on U.S. borders down", there is
some interesting political spin. "The number of illegal
immigrants arrested along U.S. borders dropped 23 percent during
the past nine months -- evidence, officials said, that stepped-up
enforcement is working." What?
Arrests went down because of the deterrant of more
enforcement. Unless, of course arrests went down because
conditions in other countries are improving and fewer people are
interested in leaving. Or perhaps people sneaking into the
country have newer and better tactics for evading the Border
Patrol so they're actually entering in record numbers.
It's entirely possible that stepped-up enforcement is a
catastrophic failure. That's the problem with stats on crime;
you only get numbers about the criminals we catch, not the
ones who get away with their crimes.
I'm sure if arrests had gone up, we'd be hearing that it was
evidence that enforcement was working. After all, we'd tried to
be better at catching people, and we caught more people!
We're also not given long term data. 695,841 people were
captures in the first three quarters of fiscal year 2007,
compared to 907,445 from the same period the previous year.
Okay, but what about 2005 and 2004. Ideally, what is the last several decades worth of numbers? Was 907,445 unusually high?
Is the trend up or down? The article doesn't provide the information, so a real analysis isn't possible. |